Publications, Reports, and Preprints

  1. Forrest W. Crawford, K Webster, GL Epstein, D Roberts, J Fair, S Nevo, Securing commercial nucleic acid synthesis (2024) RAND Report, [journal]
  2. A Djorno, Forrest W. Crawford, Mutually exciting point processes for crowdfunding platform dynamics (2024) Working Paper, [preprint]
  3. J Sun, Forrest W. Crawford, The role of discretization scales in causal inference with continuous-time treatment (2023) Submitted, [preprint]
  4. S Schulz, R Pastor, C Koyuncuoglu, Forrest W. Crawford, D Zernick, A Karch, S Rüdiger, Real-time Dissection and Forecast of Infection Dynamics during a Pandemic (2023) Submitted, [preprint]
  5. N Josephs, S Peng, Forrest W. Crawford, Communication network dynamics in a large organizational hierarchy (2024) Annals of Applied Statistics, In Press [preprint]
  6. J Sun, Forrest W. Crawford, Causal identification for continuous-time stochastic processes (2024) Submitted, (Winner of Best Student Paper award at 2023 Lifetime Data Science Conference (LiDS)) [preprint]
  7. Y Zhang, O Morozova, Forrest W. Crawford, Two perspectives on direct effects under interference (2024) Working Paper,
  8. M Erlendsdottir, S Eshghi, Forrest W. Crawford, Modeling COVID-19 care capacity in a major health system (2021) Submitted, [preprint] [app] [repo]
  9. X Cai, E Kenah, Forrest W. Crawford, Causal identification of infectious disease intervention effects in a clustered population (2021) Submitted, [preprint]
  10. H Lu, Forrest W. Crawford, G S Gonsalves, L E Grau, Geographic and temporal trends in fentanyl-involved deaths in Connecticut, 2009-2019 (2023) Annals of Epidemiology, 79 32--38 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  11. J Sun, L Van Baelen, E Plettinckx, Forrest W. Crawford, Dependence-Robust Confidence Intervals for Capture–Recapture Surveys (2022) Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, smac031 [journal] [preprint]
  12. M Erlendsdottir, Forrest W. Crawford, Randomized controlled trials of biomarker targets (2022) Clinical Trials, 20 47-58 [journal] [open access]
  13. N Josephs, D Feehan, Forrest W. Crawford, A sample size formula for network scale-up surveys (2022) Sociological Methods and Research, In press [journal] [preprint]
  14. H Aroke, A Buchanan, N Katenka, Forrest W. Crawford, T Lee, ME Halloran, C Latkin, Evaluating the Mediating Role of Recall of Intervention Knowledge in the Relationship between a Peer-Driven Intervention and HIV Risk Behaviors among People Who Inject Drugs (2023) AIDS & Behavior, 27 578-590 [journal] [open access]
  15. D J Eck, O Morozova, Forrest W. Crawford, Randomization for the susceptibility effect of an infectious disease intervention (2022) Journal of Mathematical Biology, 85 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  16. L V Orr, Forrest W. Crawford, K Khoshnood, D Khouri, F M Fouad, D W Seal, R Heimer, Sociodemographic Characteristics and HIV Risk Behaviors of Native-Born and Displaced Syrian Men and Transgender Women Who Have Sex with Men in Lebanon (2022) AIDS & Behavior, 26 4004-4011 [journal] [open access]
  17. T Nguyen-Anh Tran, N B Wikle, F Yang, H Inam, S Leighow, B Gentilesco, P Chan, E Albert, E R Strong, K Brinda, J R Pritchard, L C Madoff, C M Brown, W P Hanage, E M Hanks, Forrest W. Crawford, M F Boni, SARS-CoV-2 attack rate and population immunity in southern New England, March 2020 - May 2021 (2022) JAMA Network Open, [journal] [preprint]
  18. O Prunas, J L Warren, Forrest W. Crawford, S Gazit, T Patalon, D M Weinberger, V E Pitzer, Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel (2022) Science, 375 1151-1154 [journal] [preprint]
  19. O Schultes, V Clarke, A D Paltiel, M Cartter, L Sosa, Forrest W. Crawford, COVID-19 Testing and Case Rates and Social Contact Among Residential College Students in Connecticut During the 2020-2021 Academic Year (2021) JAMA Network Open, 12 e2140602 [journal] [preprint]
  20. A Zulli, A Pan, S Bart, Forrest W. Crawford, E Kaplan, M Cartter, A Ko, M Sanchez, D Cozens, D Brackney, C Brown, J Peccia, Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments (2021) FEMS Microbes, 2 [journal] [app]
  21. Forrest W. Crawford, S Jones, M Cartter, S G Dean, J L Warren, Zehang Li, J Barbieri, J Campbell, P Kenney, T Valleau, O Morozova, Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: evidence from one year of mobile device data (2022) Science Advances, 8 (Winner of the Innovative Tradecraft Competition at the US Geospatial Intelligence Foundation 2021 meeting) [journal] [preprint]
  22. O Morozova, Z Li, Forrest W. Crawford, One year of modeling COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut (2021) Scientific Reports, 11 20271 [journal] [preprint] [repo]
  23. X Cai, W W Loh, Forrest W. Crawford, Identification of causal intervention effects under contagion (2021) Journal of Causal Inference, 9 9-38 (Winner of best paper award, ASA Section on Statistics in Epidemiology) [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  24. K Khoshnood, FM Shebl, D Khoury, E Aara, R Barbour, Forrest W. Crawford, J Mokhbat, A Parpia, R Heimer, Reported History and Correlates of Drug Overdose among People Who Inject Drugs in Lebanon (2021) Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 27 571-579 [journal]
  25. J Chang, Forrest W. Crawford, EH Kaplan, Repeat SARS-CoV-2 Testing Models for Residential College Populations (2021) Health Care Management Science, 24 305–318 [journal] [preprint] [app]
  26. E Plettinckx, Forrest W. Crawford, J Antoine, L Gremeaux, L Van~Baelen, How many people injected drugs over the last 12 months in Belgium? Estimates based on a capture-recapture and multiplier method (2021) Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 219 108436 [journal] [open access]
  27. S Li, Forrest W. Crawford, M Gerstein, Using sigLasso to optimize cancer mutation signatures jointly with sampling likelihood (2020) Nature Communications, 11 1--12 [journal] [preprint]
  28. D M Weinberger, J Chen, T Cohen, Forrest W. Crawford, F Mostashari, D Olson, V E Pitzer, N G Reich, M Russi, L Simonsen, A Watkins, C Viboud, Estimation of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020 (2020) JAMA Internal Medicine, 180 (10) 1336--1344 [journal] [preprint]
  29. M Battaglini, Forrest W. Crawford, E Patacchini, S Peng, A Graphical Lasso Approach to Estimating Network Connections: The Case of U.S. Lawmakers (2020) Working Paper, [preprint]
  30. H Shirado, Forrest W. Crawford, N A Christakis, Collective communication and behaviour in response to uncertain `Danger' in network experiments (2020) Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 476 (2237) 20190685 (Dr. Shirado received the 2020 Marvin B. Sussman Best Dissertation Award in part for this paper) [journal]
  31. G S Gonsalves, Forrest W. Crawford, How Mike Pence Made Indiana’s HIV Outbreak Worse (2020) Politico, [journal]
  32. N E Dean, P Gsell, R Brookmeyer, Forrest W. Crawford, C A Donnelly, S S Ellenberg, T R Fleming, M E Halloran, P Horby, T Jaki, P R Krause, I M Longini, S Mulangu, J Muyembe-Tamfum, M C Nason, P G Smith, R Wang, A M Henao-Restrepo, V De Gruttola, Creating a Framework for Conducting Randomized Clinical Trials during Disease Outbreaks (2020) New England Journal of Medicine, 382 (14) 1366-1369 [journal]
  33. Z R Li, E Xie, Forrest W. Crawford, J L Warren, K McConnell, J T Copple, T Johnson, G S Gonsalves, Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: A spatiotemporal analysis (2019) PLoS Medicine, 16 e1002956 [journal] [open access]
  34. S Cheng, D J Eck, Forrest W. Crawford, Estimating the size of a hidden finite set: Large-sample behavior of estimators (2020) Statistics Surveys, 14 1-31 [journal] [preprint]
  35. O Morozova, Forrest W. Crawford, T Cohen, A D Paltiel, F L Altice, Cost-effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: Dynamic modeling analysis (2020) Addiction, 115 437--450 [journal] [open access] [repo]
  36. L Orr, F Shebl, R Heimer, K Khoshnood, R Barbour, D Khouri, E Aaraj, Forrest W. Crawford, Violence and discrimination against men who have sex with men in Lebanon: the role of international displacement and migration (2021) Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 36 10267–10284 [journal] [open access]
  37. Forrest W. Crawford, F M Marx, J Zelner, T Cohen, Transmission modeling with regression adjustment for analyzing household-based studies of infectious disease: application to tuberculosis (2020) Epidemiology, 31 238--247 (Runner-up, 2020 Rothman Prize, Epidemiology) [journal] [open access]
  38. O Morozova, R E Booth, S Dvoriak, K Dumchev, Y Sazonova, T Salyuk, Forrest W. Crawford, Divergent estimates of HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in Ukraine (2019) International Journal of Drug Policy, 73 156-162 [journal] [open access]
  39. Forrest W. Crawford, O Morozova, A L Buchanan, D Spiegelman, Interpretation of the individual effect under treatment spillover (2019) American Journal of Epidemiology, 188 1407-1409 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  40. L Zeng, J Li, Forrest W. Crawford, Empirical evidence of recruitment bias in a network study of people who inject drugs (2019) American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse, 45 460-469 [journal] [open access]
  41. G S Gonsalves, Forrest W. Crawford, Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, Indiana, 2011-2015: a modelling study (2018) The Lancet HIV, 5 569-577 [journal] [open access] [app] [repo]
  42. G S Gonsalves, Forrest W. Crawford, Lessons learned from the Indiana HIV outbreak (2018) HIV Specialist, 10 (4) [journal]
  43. P M Aronow, Forrest W. Crawford, J R Zubizarreta, Confidence intervals for linear unbiased estimators under constrained dependence (2018) Electronic Journal of Statistics, 12 (2) 2238-2252 [journal] [repo]
  44. J Wu, Forrest W. Crawford, D A Kim, D Stafford, N A Christakis, Exposure, hazard, and survival analysis of diffusion on social networks (2018) Statistics in Medicine, 37 2561--2585 (Winner of 2017 WNAR Outstanding Written Paper Award) [journal] [open access]
  45. Y Liu, Forrest W. Crawford, Estimating dose-specific cell division and apoptosis rates from chemo-sensitivity experiments (2018) Scientific Reports, 8 (2705) 1--8 [journal] [open access] [repo]
  46. L S Ho, Forrest W. Crawford, M A Suchard, Direct likelihood-based inference for discretely observed stochastic compartmental models of infectious disease (2018) Annals of Applied Statistics, 12 (3) 1993--2021 [journal] [preprint] [repo]
  47. O Morozova, T Cohen, Forrest W. Crawford, Risk ratios for contagious outcomes (2018) Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 15 20170696 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  48. Forrest W. Crawford, L S Ho, M A Suchard, Computational methods for birth-death processes (2018) Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics, 10 e1423 [journal] [open access] [repo]
  49. Forrest W. Crawford, P M Aronow, L Zeng, J Li, Identification of homophily and preferential recruitment in respondent-driven sampling (2018) American Journal of Epidemiology, 187 153-160 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  50. J Wu, Forrest W. Crawford, M Raag, R Heimer, A Uusküla, Using data from respondent-driven sampling to estimate the number of people who inject drugs, with application to the Kohtla-Järve region of Estonia (2017) PLoS One, 12 (11) e0185711 [journal] [open access]
  51. J E Pachankis, M L Hatzenbuehler, K Wang, C L Burton, Forrest W. Crawford, J C Phelan, B G Link, The Burden of Stigma on Health and Wellbeing: A Taxonomy of Concealment, Course, Disruptiveness, Aesthetics, Origin, and Peril across 93 Stigmas (2018) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 44 451-474 [journal] [open access]
  52. G Gunabushanam, J D Millet, E Stilp, Forrest W. Crawford, R L McNamara, L M Scoutt, Computer-assisted detection of tardus parvus waveforms on Doppler ultrasound (2018) Ultrasound, 26 (2) 81--92 [journal] [open access]
  53. R Heimer, R Barbour, D Khoury, Forrest W. Crawford, F Shebl, E Aaraj, K Khoshnood, HIV Risk, Prevalence, and Access to Care among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Lebanon (2017) AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses, 33 (11) 1149--1154 [journal] [open access]
  54. L S Ho, J Xu, Forrest W. Crawford, V N Minin, M A Suchard, Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications (2018) Journal of Mathematical Biology, 76 911-944 [journal] [preprint] [open access] [repo]
  55. G S Gonsalves, Forrest W. Crawford, P D Cleary, E H Kaplan, A D Paltiel, An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services (2018) Medical Decision Making, 38 (2) 262-272 [journal] [open access]
  56. L Chen, Forrest W. Crawford, A Karbasi, Submodular Variational Inference for Network Reconstruction (2017) Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), [journal] [preprint]
  57. Forrest W. Crawford, J Wu, R Heimer, Hidden population size estimation from respondent-driven sampling: a network approach (2018) Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113 755-766 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  58. G J Culbert, Forrest W. Crawford, A Murni, A Waluyo, A R Bazazi, J Sahar, F L Altice, Predictors of Mortality within Prison and after Release among Persons Living with HIV in Indonesia (2017) Research and Reports in Tropical Medicine, 8 25-35 [journal] [open access]
  59. M Antillón, J L Warren, Forrest W. Crawford, D M Weinberger, E Küru\"m, G D Pak, J K Park, F Marks, V E Pitzer, The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: a meta-regression approach (2017) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11 (2) e0005376 [journal] [open access]
  60. Forrest W. Crawford, The graphical structure of respondent-driven sampling (2016) Sociological Methodology, 46 187-211 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  61. A Kunkel, Forrest W. Crawford, J Shepherd, T Cohen, Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining TB/HIV co-epidemic (2016) AIDS, 30 2715--2723 [journal] [open access]
  62. L Chen, A Karbasi, Forrest W. Crawford, Estimating the size of a large network and its communities from a random sample (2016) Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 29 [journal]
  63. Forrest W. Crawford, Discussion of ``Co-authorship and citation networks for statisticians'' by Pengsheng Ji and Jiashun Jin (2016) Annals of Applied Statistics, 10 [journal]
  64. V Pitzer, J Bilcke, E Heylen, Forrest W. Crawford, M Van Ranst, M Zeller, J Matthijnssens, Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium? (2015) Scientific Reports, 5 18585 [journal] [open access]
  65. L Chen, Forrest W. Crawford, A Karbasi, Seeing the Unseen Network: Inferring Hidden Social Ties from Respondent-Driven Sampling (2015) Proceedings of The 30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 28th Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, 30 [journal]
  66. A R Bazazi, A Vijay, Forrest W. Crawford, R Heimer, A Kamarulzaman, F L Altice, HIV testing and awareness of HIV status among people who inject drugs in Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2018) AIDS Care, 30 59-64 [journal] [open access]
  67. A R Bazazi, Forrest W. Crawford, A Zelenev, R Heimer, A Kamarulzaman, F L Altice, HIV Prevalence Among People Who Inject Drugs in Greater Kuala Lumpur Recruited Using Respondent-Driven Sampling (2015) AIDS & Behavior, 19 2347-2357 [journal] [open access]
  68. Forrest W. Crawford, TC Stutz, K Lange, Coupling bounds for approximating birth-death processes by truncation (2016) Statistics and Probability Letters, 109 30-38 [journal] [open access]
  69. Forrest W. Crawford, Hidden network reconstruction from information diffusion (2015) 18th International Conference on Information Fusion, 180-185 [journal]
  70. PM Aronow, A Coppock, Forrest W. Crawford, DP Green, Combining list experiment and direct question estimates of sensitive behavior prevalence (2015) Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 3 43-66 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  71. Forrest W. Crawford, RE Weiss, MA Suchard, Sex, lies, and self-reported counts: Bayesian mixture models for longitudinal heaped count data via birth-death processes (2015) Annals of Applied Statistics, 9 (2) 572-596 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  72. I Quintero, P Keil, W Jetz, Forrest W. Crawford, Historical Biogeography Using Species Geographical Ranges (2015) Systematic Biology, 64 (6) 1059--1073 [journal] [open access]
  73. PM Aronow, Forrest W. Crawford, Nonparametric identification for respondent-driven sampling (2015) Statistics and Probability Letters, 106 100-102 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  74. Forrest W. Crawford, D Zelterman, Markov counting models for correlated binary responses (2015) Biostatistics, 3 427-440 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  75. WH Mulder, Forrest W. Crawford, On the distribution of interspecies correlation for Markov mutation models on Yule trees (2015) Journal of Theoretical Biology, 364 275--283 [journal] [open access]
  76. ES Braun, Forrest W. Crawford, MM Desai, J Meek, PD Kirley, L Miller, EJ Anderson, O Oni, P Ryan, R Lynfield, M Bargsten, NM Bennett, KL Lung, A Thomas, E Mermel, M Lindegren, W Schaffner, A Price, SS Chaves, Obesity not associated with severity among hospitalized adults with seasonal influenza virus infection (2015) Infection, 43 569--575 [journal] [open access]
  77. OG Pybus, MA Suchard, P Lemey, F Bernadin, A Rambaut, Forrest W. Crawford, RR Gray, N Arinaminpathy, S Stramer, MP Busch, E Delwart, Unifying the spatial epidemiology and evolution of emerging epidemics (2012) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 109 (37) 15066-15071 [journal] [open access]
  78. S Saraswathy, Forrest W. Crawford, KL Lamborn, A Pirzkall, S Chang, S Cha, SJ Nelson, Evaluation of MR markers that predict survival in patients with newly diagnosed GBM prior to adjuvant therapy (2008) Journal of Neuro-Oncology, 91 (1) 69-81 [journal] [open access]
  79. S Cha, T Tihan, Forrest W. Crawford, NJ Fischbein, S Chang, A Bollen, SJ Nelson, M Prados, MS Berger, WP Dillon, Differentiation of low-grade oligodendrogliomas from low-grade astrocytomas by using quantitative blood-volume measurements derived from dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced MR imaging (2005) American Journal of Neuroradiology, 26 (2) 266-273 [journal] [open access]
  80. JC Crane, Forrest W. Crawford, SJ Nelson, Grid enabled magnetic resonance scanners for near real-time medical image processing (2006) Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing, 66 1524-1533 [journal]
  81. Forrest W. Crawford, MA Suchard, Diversity, disparity, and evolutionary rate estimation for unresolved Yule trees (2013) Systematic Biology, 62 439-455 [journal] [open access]
  82. Forrest W. Crawford, IS Khayal, C McGue, S Saraswathy, A Pirzkall, S Cha, KR Lamborn, S Chang, MS Berger, SJ Nelson, Relationship of pre-surgery metabolic and physiological MR imaging parameters to survival for patients with untreated GBM (2008) Journal of Neuro-Oncology, 91 (3) 337-351 [journal] [open access]
  83. Forrest W. Crawford, MA Suchard, Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution (2012) Journal of Mathematical Biology, 65 553-580 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  84. Forrest W. Crawford, VN Minin, MA Suchard, Estimation for General Birth-Death Processes (2014) Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109 (506) 730-747 [journal] [preprint] [open access]
  85. IS Khayal, Forrest W. Crawford, S Saraswathy, KR Lamborn, SM Chang, S Cha, TR McKnight, SJ Nelson, Relationship between choline and apparent diffusion coefficient in patients with gliomas (2008) Journal of Magnetic Resonance Imaging, 27 (4) 718-725 [journal] [open access]
  86. X Li, DB Vigneron, S Cha, EE Graves, Forrest W. Crawford, SM Chang, SJ Nelson, Relationship of MR-derived lactate, mobile lipids, and relative blood volume for gliomas in vivo (2005) American Journal of Neuroradiology, 26 (4) 760-769 [journal] [open access]
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